In Australia,
they say the Melbourne Cup stops a nation albeit even if it is just a glorified
handicap. The Grand National, on the other hand, genuinely does stop a nation,
if not nations. From housewives to experts, people
from all walks of life will have a bet on the race. The 2009 John Smith's Grand National takes place this Saturday 4th
April. 19tomil will be placing a £5 bet on your behalf with all winnings
going into the pot. Browse our review and then decide who you think we should bet on in the Voting Arena .
A four
and a half mile
stamina sapping slog over thirty fences at Aintree. It’s a test of
endurance
and jumping ability like none other. While we’ll try and
guide you to the winners, throwing a dart at the racecard may prove
more effective. However despite having a reputation as a lottery for
punters, 13 of the last 17 have been in the top eight in the betting.
Conditions and final
declarations will play a major part in deciding who to back, but there are
significant pointers already, not least Paul Nicholls’ claim that his principal
charge My Will is in “great shape and we have had this race in mind for 18 months”
while he also adds “He jumps and travels and has a touch of class.” With Ruby Walsh now confirmed he is sure to go off as favourite.
However, since 1982 there have only been 4 winning outright favourites of the
race.
With the removal of last year’s runner up King John’s
Castle (wouldn’t have won anyway as only two greys have ever won the race), the
gambled on War of Attrition’s claims have significantly improved. Irish punters
have backed the 2006 Gold Cup winner to land the spoils in Liverpool
on the 5th of April and his trainer Mouse Morris is one of the shrewdest
trainers in the business. He has bags of stamina but will need to stay out of
trouble, like the rest of them. He’s a strong each way claim given the
confidence behind him. Apart from Hedgehunter in 2005, no horse since 1984 has
carried more than 11 stone to victory. Michael O’Leary’s 10 year old gelding,
even after the final declaration stage will certainly carry over 11 stone.
The JP McManus owned Butlers Cabin was seen as AP
McCoy’s best chance to win his first Grand National in 2008. Like Champion
jockeys before him John Francome and Peter Scudamore, AP, who rode his 3,000th
winner this year, is a Grand National virgin. And there’s not too many of them
around Liverpool, especially that weekend.
McCoy has yet to decide whether he’ll go with the desperately unlucky Cabin who
exited at Becher’s Brook in 2008 or the French bred L’ami. However a French bred horse has not won the race this century, the Irish on the other hand have taken 6 of the last 9.
Having won the Becher Chase in November, Black
Apalachi is proven over the course’s stiff fences and stamina shouldn’t be a
problem for the Irish trained gelding. Dessie Hughes’s 10 year old is off a
good mark and will be a popular Irish winner if can cross the line in front. Since 1970 every winner of the national had won in races over 3 miles or further.Rambling Minster has proven stamina over long
distances and has won well most recently at Cheltenham in January where he
powered up the famous PrestburyPark hill. The 11 year
old would like good ground and as long as Mother Nature doesn’t saturate the
course the Keith Reveley trained horse has big chance.
Six years ago a small trainer from Cork saddled the winner of the national.
Jimmy Mangan will bid to repeat the achievements of Monty’s Pass with 10 year
old Himalayan Trail, winner of the 2008 Midlands National at Uttoxeter. He’s
been exuding confidence in the media and is a massive price to win. Horses aged between 9-12 have won 15 of the last 18 races.
David Pipe really stepped out of his father’s shadow
when winning the race last year with the well supported Comply or Die. He’ll
need to emulate the likes of Reynoldstown, The Colonel and the legend Red Rum
if he’s win the race for a second consecutive year. Timmy Murphy gave the horse
an impervious ride last year and kept him out of trouble to win by a
comfortable four lengths. If the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him and barring a Devon
Loch moment, the David Johnson owned horse could be a serious contender again. In the past 20 years, 18 of the horses finishing in the top 4 have ran the previous years race and 6 of the last 7 winners had run over the national fences before.
Finally Winner of the 2008 Irish Grand National Hear the Echo shouldn't be discounted as this race has provided 5 winners and one placed horse in the last 20 years.